This report works through the INEOS capital structure tranche by tranche — what sits where, what it costs, and where the value breaks under a range of EBITDA and refinancing scenarios. The objective is simple: separate the parts of the structure that are well-protected from the parts that are quietly carrying the risk.

What the analysis covers

• The full debt stack and security package, ranked by priority
• Maturity profile and refinancing needs into 2028
• Liquidity runway under base and stress cases
• Recovery analysis and the identification of the fulcrum

The thesis in one line

At current levels the senior secured offers most of the structural protection for a fraction of the volatility — which is why our recommendation sits there rather than further down the stack.